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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Safety: Blow-ups happen

Safety: Blow-ups happen | The Economist:


The below quote highlights the issue with models and stated probabilities.

Modelling based on experience with previous plants suggests that the risk of a significant radiation leak from generation I reactors was between one in 1,000 and one in 10,000 per reactor year. For generation II it is between one in 10,000 and one in 1m. For generation III it should be between one in 1m and one in 100m. These calculations do not reflect the absolute risks as experienced in the real world; there have been five major releases of radioactivity (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and the three reactors at Fukushima) in only 14,000 reactor years of operation. But the trend towards safety seems to be real.

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