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Friday, December 30, 2011

Projecting US Military Power | The Big Picture

Racist or not, Ron Paul is right about this:

Projecting US Military Power | The Big Picture

Questioning the Boomerang Generation - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com

Solid research disproves a meme now in the media; the number of singles living on their own (versus living with parents) is higher, despite poor economic conditions.

Questioning the Boomerang Generation - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com

The Dumbest Idea In The World

“On the face of it, shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world. Shareholder value is a result, not a strategy… your main constituencies are your employees, your customers and your products.


The Dumbest Idea In The World: Maximizing Shareholder Value - Forbes:

N.Y.C. Traffic Deaths Set 100-Year Low, Mayor Says - NYTimes.com

Drivers of Our Better Nature.
Absolute number of traffic deaths is at a new low.
Fewer died than in 1910, before the age of autos.

N.Y.C. Traffic Deaths Set 100-Year Low, Mayor Says - NYTimes.com

Tax Breaks From Options a Windfall for Businesses - NYTimes.com

Another reason to eliminate tax accounting for business. Just use sec accounting and apply a tax rate.


Tax Breaks From Options a Windfall for Businesses - NYTimes.com

U.S. Manufacturing Gains Jobs as Wages Retreat - NYTimes.com

Chinese wage advantage is disappearing as Chinese wages fall and U.S. wages and productivity rises.

U.S. Manufacturing Gains Jobs as Wages Retreat - NYTimes.com

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Graph of the Year

anatomy-of-a-crash.png (1029�792)

Why Pilot Projects Fail

Not all pilot projects fail, but this is a summary of the risks.

Why Pilot Projects Fail - Business - The Atlantic

Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us

This is not the failure of science. This is science.

Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us | Magazine:

And yet, we must never forget that our causal beliefs are defined by their limitations. For too long, we’ve pretended that the old problem of causality can be cured by our shiny new knowledge. If only we devote more resources to research or dissect the system at a more fundamental level or search for ever more subtle correlations, we can discover how it all works. But a cause is not a fact, and it never will be; the things we can see will always be bracketed by what we cannot. And this is why, even when we know everything about everything, we’ll still be telling stories about why it happened. It’s mystery all the way down.

Economic geography: Moving toward stagnation | The Economist

High land prices slow population growth, and productivity growth in the most productive geographies.

Economic geography: Moving toward stagnation | The Economist:

The picture that emerges is one in which employment growth in high productivity, tradable industries is constrained at the rate of housing supply growth in skilled cities. And that rate is slow; for much of the past decade, Houston approved about ten times more new housing each year than San Jose. Value creation in high productivity cities continues, but a lot of that value is siphoned off through taxes and transfered to residents of low productivity cities, who use it to buy non-tradable services. That dynamic would seem to be the main mechanism through which America has been generating net job growth over the past two decades.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Iraq Policy Failed

Opinion: Iraq failed U.S. troops - Lawrence Korb - POLITICO.com

Romney-Gingrich Bid to Pin Crisis

Republican candidates refuse to accept the facts about the causes of the current crisis. How can they solve it if they refuse to face the reality?

Romney-Gingrich Bid to Pin Crisis on Gov’t - Bloomberg

Pathetic Plutocrats

One of the disadvantages of being very wealthy may be that you end up surrounded by sycophants, who will never, ever tell you what a fool you’re making of yourself.


Pathetic Plutocrats - NYTimes.com:

Origins of the Tea Party

Tea Party reflects many of the principles of the old Confederacy.

Robert Reich (Why the Republican Crackup is Bad For America)

Dear Jamie Dimon

Dear Jamie Dimon, | The Reformed Broker

Billionaire Buffoons

Billionaire Buffoons

Billionaire Buffoons Hoisted On Their Own Petards | The Big Picture

Monday, December 19, 2011

Ron Paul And The Republican Future - The Dish | By Andrew Sullivan - The Daily Beast

Ron Paul And The Republican Future - The Dish | By Andrew Sullivan - The Daily Beast:

Ron Paul is wrong about a lot, but he is right about this:

We have to move back from a Department of Offense and Empire to a Department of Defense and Security. We need to let go of paranoia. The cycle of fear has already done immeasurable damage to the constitution, the economy and regional stability and security (watch Iraq and Afghanistan implode in the next few years).

Sunday, December 11, 2011

You Say You Want a Devolution?

Cultural history has ended?
My 20 year old Jeep does not stand out in the parking lot.


You Say You Want a Devolution? | Style | Vanity Fair

John Cochrane's Talk at Hoover:

John Cochrane's Talk at Hoover: His Version, David Henderson | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty:

For nearly 100 years we have tried to stop runs with government guarantees--deposit insurance, generous lender of last resort, and bailouts. That patch leads to huge moral hazard. Giving a banker a bailout guarantee is like giving a teenager keys to the car and a case of whisky. So, we appoint regulators who are supposed to stop the banks from taking risks, in a hopeless arms race against smart MBAs, lawyers and lobbyists who try to get around the regulation, and though we allow-nay, we encourage and subsidize--expansion of run-prone assets.

Friday, December 09, 2011

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Traffic in Frenetic HCMC, Vietnam on Vimeo

Traffic in Frenetic HCMC, Vietnam on Vimeo

Democrats Dare Not "Abandon" the White Working Class

RealClearPolitics - Democrats Dare Not "Abandon" the White Working Class:


The Great Recession provided Democrats a chance to reconnect with working and middle-class whites. But this chance was squandered by the end of 2009. Obama focused his first year on the Democratic issue of the age (universal health care) instead of the issue of the time (the dire economy). That mistake, like progressives’ over-reading of Obama’s 2008 victory, continues to distort Democrats’ understanding of the daunting electoral terrain before them.

More Public Sector Workers Are Retiring?

We need a better press corps. This paragraph, one of the only data points in the story, contradicts the premise of the entire article. Don't they use editors at the NYT?

But a broad survey of about 100 public retirement systems suggests a rate of retirement that has remained within a relatively steady range in recent years, said Keith Brainard, research director for the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. “Before I would call this a trend, it would need to continue for another year or two,” he said.



More Public Sector Workers Are Retiring - NYTimes.com:

Friday, December 02, 2011

Vaclav Smil on U.S. Manufacturing - By Reihan Salam - The Agenda - National Review Online

Vaclav Smil on U.S. Manufacturing - By Reihan Salam - The Agenda - National Review Online

Anyone but Mitt Romney

Cool graphical display of information.

Anyone but Mitt Romney graphic: The GOP nomination race so far | News | National Post

Success and Morality in a Market Economy

EconoSpeak: Success and Morality in a Market Economy:


In a community regulated by laws of demand and supply, but protected from open violence, the persons who become rich are, generally speaking, industrious, resolute, proud, covetous, prompt, methodical, sensible, unimaginative, insensitive, and ignorant. �The persons who remain poor are the entirely foolish, the entirely wise, the idle, the reckless, the humble, the thoughtful, the dull, the imaginative, the sensitive, the well-informed, the improvident, the irregularly and impulsively wicked, the clumsy knave, the open thief, and the entirely merciful, just, and godly person.

Drilling Down - Fighting Over Oil and Gas

Another example of why inequality grows in America. There is a large difference between the negotiating power of a large corporation and individuals. Without regulation, there is room for abuse.

Drilling Down - Fighting Over Oil and Gas Well Leases - NYTimes.com

Thursday, December 01, 2011

Why we need single payer

This should be a one box chart.

ScreenHunter_06-Nov.-30-16.24.gif (1085�812)

Lots of Questions for the Fed

Yesterday's action was good for the 1%.

"The action leaves some important matters unchanged. No government has brought its budget under control. No political impasse has been broken. No bank has become better capitalized. No wages within the euro zone have adjusted to address their misalignment. And yet the markets are in a state of euphoria. It is like watching Ben Bernanke play Peter Pan, the European banks as an ailing Tinkerbell, and the stock market as the audience, fervently proclaiming "We believe in fairies!""

Lots of Questions for the Fed - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com

Why Has Inequality Gone Up So Much?

Why Has Inequality Gone Up So Much? | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

Congress push to relax US securities laws

Incredible that some believe less regulation of securities business will result in better outcomes. Where were they in 2008?

Congress push to relax US securities laws - FT.com

Monday, November 28, 2011

The Eurozone must not “move forward”

Surprising fact of the day: Germany is as rich as Alabama or Arkansas.

TheMoneyIllusion � The Eurozone must not “move forward”:

Many people seem to be under the illusion that Germany is a rich country.� It isn’t.� It’s a thrifty country.� German per capita income (PPP) is more than 20% below US levels, below the level of Alabama and Arkansas.� If you consider those states to be “rich,” then by all means go on calling Germany a rich country.�

The Magic of Education

Caplan on the signaling model of education.

The Magic of Education, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

Vasily Alekseyev, 69, Champion Weight Lifter, Dies - NYTimes.com

One of the favorite athletes of my youth.



Vasily Alekseyev, 69, Champion Weight Lifter, Dies - NYTimes.com

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

We have to do better on inequality

On crony capitalism from a crony capitalist.

We have to do better on inequality - FT.com

From the comments:

"What next? John Corzine opining on recommendations for Risk Management and Operational Controls?"

Dirty Jobs Don't Have to Be Lousy Jobs

Finding workers for jobs that "only immigrants will do" is a demand problem, not a supply problem. Those businesses need to raise wages.

RealClearPolitics - Dirty Jobs Don't Have to Be Lousy Jobs

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Steve Sailer's iSteve Blog: $1.6 million paid to historian: Nice work if you can get it

A good definition of crony capitalism. Paying off politicians when they retire signals current politians to behave so they, too, will receive money when they retire.


Steve Sailer's iSteve Blog: $1.6 million paid to historian: Nice work if you can get it:

Gingrich was out of power at the time, so this wasn't a direct bribe, it was more an attempt to mold opinion to keep Freddie respectable by buying the friendship of a voluble famous guy, with maybe some big payoff down the road if Gingrich made a political comeback. Moreover, paying Gingrich a lot after he was out of office serves to encourage the others in office to be nice to Freddie now in the hopes that they too can get what's coming to them down the road.�

More on the Big LIe

Economics and Politics by Paul Krugman - The Conscience of a Liberal - NYTimes.com

Gingrich Was Paid ~$1.7M From GSEs

Gingrich claims he was a historian and not a lobbiest.

Gingrich Was Paid ~$1.7M From GSEs | The Big Picture

Heavier Cars Kill

This could also be titled, "Why Gas Mileage Does not Improve".



CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Heavier Cars Kill

Monday, November 14, 2011

Copyright Protection

This article is about music, but might be applicable to health care as well. Incumbents will lose if copyright protection is loosened. It is not clear, however, if quality has to suffer.

Was Napster the day the music died? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists:



While the traditional purveyors of recorded music – the major record labels – have suffered since Napster, good music has continued to make its way to market. Independent labels account for a growing share of successful music, measured both by critical acclaim and sales. While many producers of recorded music have been made worse off by changes in technology, there is no evidence that the volume of high-quality music, or consumers, have suffered. Many caveats are in order, however. Chiefly, it is not clear whether the results extend to other content industries where creation remains quite expensive. But the results are a reminder that an evaluation of copyright policy should be cognisant of its effects on both producers and consumers.

College Tuition, Student Loans, and Unemployment :

College is not a "bubble". Work hard boys.

College Tuition, Student Loans, and Unemployment : The New Yorker

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Eddie Murphy: The Rolling Stone Interview | Movies News | Rolling Stone

Eddie Murphy: The Rolling Stone Interview | Movies News | Rolling Stone:

Eddy Murphy at 50:

My whole shit revolves around having this peace of mind. It's peaceful, quiet, that's my day-to-day. I play my guitar, hang out with my girl. My kids went to their mom's this week. I'm chilling, no stress. After all these years, I've done well and I'm cool. I feel comfortable in my skin, I've saved some paper, everybody's healthy, my kids are beautiful and smart, doing different things, it's all good. I'm trying to maintain my shit like this, and do a fun project every now and then.

Boston Review — Lawrence Lessig and David V. Johnson: Reclaiming the Republic

Boston Review — Lawrence Lessig and David V. Johnson: Reclaiming the Republic:

Why did we create a Congress?” The framers didn’t sit down and set up a Congress so they could imagine these 535 independent contractors all arbitraging fundraising opportunities. If that’s what the institution is, then let’s just shut it down.

Friday, November 11, 2011

The Republican Party’s Mitt Romney problem - The Washington Post

The Republican Party’s Mitt Romney problem - The Washington Post:

Important insight into the current state of political parties.

"As we theorize,” write the half dozen political scientists who collaborated on “A Theory of Political Parties,” published this year, “parties no longer compete to win elections by giving voters the policies voters want. Rather, as coalitions of intense policy demanders, they have their own agendas and aim to get voters to go along.”

Loser Liberalism is a Winner | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

Loser Liberalism is a Winner | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

Wall Street v. Elizabeth Warren � The Baseline Scenario

Wall Street v. Elizabeth Warren � The Baseline Scenario

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

The Social Graph is Neither

The Social Graph is Neither (Pinboard Blog)

A guide to shaking off the doom and gloom

I need to stop reading the news. . .


A guide to shaking off the doom and gloom - FT.com

Phys Ed: Staying Strong as We Age - NYTimes.com

Phys Ed: Staying Strong as We Age - NYTimes.com

Greed, Green and Grains: Bubble Land

Farmland prices are probably not yet in bubble territory.


Greed, Green and Grains: Bubble Land

News and Events - Narayana Kocherlakota Speech - Looking Back at Four Years of Federal Reserve Actions - November 8, 2011 | The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

News and Events - Narayana Kocherlakota Speech - Looking Back at Four Years of Federal Reserve Actions - November 8, 2011 | The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis:

Narayana Kocherlakota, President of Fed Bank of Minneapolis, thinks that the Fed dual mandate is invalid because it is hard. At least we get an explanation about why the Fed seems to care more about inflation than employment.

An important and ongoing communications challenge for the FOMC is that it is much harder to quantify the maximum employment mandate than the price stability mandate. Changes in minimum wage policy, demography, taxes and regulations, technological productivity, job market efficiency, unemployment insurance benefits, entrepreneurial credit access and social norms all influence what we might consider “maximum employment.” Trying to offset these changes in the economy with monetary policy can lead to a dangerous drift in inflationary expectations and ultimately in inflation itself."

The King of Human Error

Michael Lewis reviews Kahneman's latest book, Thinking Fast and Slow. The book is a summary of the work of Kahneman's career. One which he was hesitant to write.


The King of Human Error | Business | Vanity Fair

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Steve Jobs: Nature, Nurture, And Apricot Orchards In Silicon Valley

The other side of Jobs


Steve Jobs: Nature, Nurture, And Apricot Orchards In Silicon Valley | VDARE.com

Chinese bubble bursting

Chinese bubble bursting: A probable non-event � naked capitalism:

The end of the Chinese housing bubble will not be a disaster because the Chinese technocrats will know how to respond.

"Yes, the property bubble in China looks like its bursting. But no, this will probably not prove to be a catastrophe. Instead, we in the West are going to get schooled once again, when our Eastern ‘comrades’ show us just how to run an advanced capitalist economy. History, eh? It’s just one big irony."

Monday, November 07, 2011

On the Ropes with Herman Cain - NYTimes.com

On the Ropes with Herman Cain - NYTimes.com:
The power of charisma:
"Cain also likes to tell his audience that callers to his show went from “concerned” to “frightened” for the nation’s future. This, too, is true. More than any other candidate, Cain has managed to connect to those Americans — yet, unlike Sarah Palin, he has done it by unleashing optimism rather than bitterness. He can articulate a crowd’s worst fears — America is falling apart, weakening in the world, suffering economic carnage — and then reassure everyone that, no worries, we can fix it. If any candidate were able to relate to voters in this way and have a clue what he or she was talking about (there, in Cain’s case, is the rub), that person would be unstoppable."

China Trade:

China Trade: Another Chapter in the 2000s Weak Jobs Story | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow - FT.com

Sunday, November 06, 2011

Who is against individual responsibility? — Marginal Revolution

Who is against individual responsibility? — Marginal Revolution:

From the comments, a good summary of OWS:

"Compare the common summary of the attitude of 99% protesters – “I worked hard given the system and I didn’t get what the system promised me – and someone else flouted the social contract and was amply rewarded for it” – which doesn’t actually conflict with tripartite of initiative, hard work, and individual responsibility. Rather the disagreement is over what one should be responsible [i]for[/i]. If the state of nature doesn’t reward hard work, then the state of men must do so."

RealClearPolitics - Excessive CEO Pay and Job Losses: Are They Linked?

OWS is changing the conversation. I would never have expected an article of this tone on RCP.

RealClearPolitics - Excessive CEO Pay and Job Losses: Are They Linked?

Fatty Foods Addictive as Cocaine in Growing Body of Science - Bloomberg

Fatty Foods Addictive as Cocaine in Growing Body of Science - Bloomberg:

Good science or too much of a nanny state.
"Cupcakes may be addictive, just like cocaine."

Thursday, November 03, 2011

The Treasury Joins the Build While It's Cheap Chorus | Capital Gains and Games

"Better late than never"

The Treasury Joins the Build While It's Cheap Chorus | Capital Gains and Games

How much does downloading a book increase the weight of your Kindle? — Marginal Revolution

Answers to questions that you would never think to ask.

How much does downloading a book increase the weight of your Kindle? — Marginal Revolution

When Partisan Obstruction Goes Too Far

Support our troops. Support the CFPB

When Partisan Obstruction Goes Too Far

Will Greece Pull an Iceland? | The Big Picture

"Tell the banks to pound sand"

Will Greece Pull an Iceland? | The Big Picture

Five grim and essential lessons for world leaders - FT.com

Summers seems to have gotten a lot smarter since he left the government.

Five grim and essential lessons for world leaders - FT.com

280 Big Public Firms Paid Little U.S.

Another reason why OWS protests make sense.


280 Big Public Firms Paid Little U.S. Tax, Study Finds - NYTimes.com

Monday, October 31, 2011

‘Reshoring’ jobs from China won’t happen - FT.com

The math of reshoring does not look so good. Chinese wages are still low in simple manufacturing, productivity is still growing in higher value added manufacturing.

‘Reshoring’ jobs from China won’t happen - FT.com

Social Security Bait And Switch,

Social Security Bait And Switch, A Continuing Series - NYTimes.com:

In legal terms, the program is funded not just by today’s payroll taxes, but by accumulated past surpluses — the trust fund. If there’s a year when payroll receipts fall short of benefits, but there are still trillions of dollars in the trust fund, what happens is, precisely, nothing — the program has the funds it needs to operate, without need for any Congressional action.

Alternatively, you can think about Social Security as just part of the federal budget. But in that case, it’s just part of the federal budget; it doesn’t have either surpluses or deficits, no more than the defense budget.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Best Steve Jobs Quotes From Biography

Best Steve Jobs Quotes From Biography

“You don’t make plans more than a year out, and that’s bad. You need to force yourself to plan as if you will live for many years.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/best-steve-jobs-quotes-from-biography-2011-10?op=1#ixzz1byduftNZ

Crisis in industry

The crisis has been a long time coming. It was done by different players (specialists) and with different tools.


There is a crisis of leadership in our industry, folks. The markets will be broken until the focus returns to helping investors invest money, and not touching investor orders to siphon money.


Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The Power of Leverage

One reason why the top .1 percent has been able to grow their wealth is that they understand the power of leverage.

Return On Equity Versus Return On Assets | ThinkProgress:


" Imagine that in 1990 bank CEO pay had been indexed to bank ROE. By 2007, CEO compensation would have reached $26 million. That is precisely in line with their actual payouts. If you believed ROE were a reliable performance metric, US bank CEOs would have had a watertight defence back in 2007. Instead, of course, we had ludicrously leveraged banks that were too big to fail and brought the economy down with them. [...] Imagine if the CEOs of the seven largest US banks had in 1989 agreed to index their salaries not to ROE, but to ROA. By 2007, their compensation would not have grown tenfold. Instead, it would have risen from $2.8 million to $3.4 million. Rather than rising to 500 times median household income, it would have fallen to around 68 times."

Thank you

DEAR AMERICA: It's Time To Say A Big "Thank You" To Amazon

China Takes Loss to Get Ahead

China has a very different view on government investment.


“Someone has to lose money,” Guo Qigang, the plant’s general manager, said in a recent interview. “We’re a state-owned corporation, and it’s our social responsibility.”

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

FEAR THE MUSTACHE:

FEAR THE MUSTACHE: Here Is The Best Campaign Video Of All Time

The Romney Economy


These Bain Capital guys,” says Neil Fligstein, an economics-sociology professor at the University of California, Berkeley, “were agents of the shareholder value revolution.”


How private equity changed the US economy and spurred the rise of the .01%

The Romney Economy:

Or at least a bit player. 

Monday, October 17, 2011

America’s Secret Empire of Drone Bases: Its Full Extent Revealed for the First Time | World | AlterNet

This will turn out well.

America’s Secret Empire of Drone Bases: Its Full Extent Revealed for the First Time | World | AlterNet

Edward Luttwak Talks Israel and Bin Laden – Tablet Magazine

Fascinating take on foreign policy from someone I have never heard of...

Edward Luttwak Talks Israel and Bin Laden – Tablet Magazine:

Listen, my wife is a very good cook. And we have a housekeeper, who is an even better cook. It’s a weird situation, but I think my housekeeper is a better cook than any restaurant in Washington. She is a simple woman with no education, from Chile, and she just happens to have a superhuman talent. She being such a good cook, she achieves wonderful effects with very strange ingredients, and strange combinations of ingredients. Israel’s success as a state has been made possible by Arab threats of different kinds. Arab violence or threats of violence are part of the Israeli soup. There are certain levels of violence that are so high that they’re damaging, and there are also levels that are so low they are damaging. There is an optimum level of the Arab threat. I would say for about nine days of the 1973 war, the level of violence was much too high. Even when Israelis were successful, the level of violence was destroying the tissue of the state. Most of the time, the violence is positive.

Varieties of inequality

Money isn't everything.

TheMoneyIllusion � Varieties of inequality

Volcker Rule Divides Regulators - NYTimes.com

Five agencies have to weigh in on the Volker rule. This is part of the problem. There are too many agencies regulating financial transactions. Too much room for regulatory arbitrage. Lobbyists for the banksters know how to divide and conquer.

Volcker Rule Divides Regulators - NYTimes.com

Show the Fed more forbearance - FT.com

The tea party might be the only populist movement in history that has called for harder money. This probably means that this populist movement has been co opted.

Show the Fed more forbearance - FT.com

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Does algorithmic trading improve liquidity? — Marginal Revolution

Algorithmic trading improves liquidity, at least in large cap stocks.

Does algorithmic trading improve liquidity? — Marginal Revolution

Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China - FT.com

Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China - FT.com

Lunch with the FT: Mitsuko Uchida

Insights into Japanese culture

“Japanese culture has two extremes – utter simplicity and over-the-top vulgarity. "

Lunch with the FT: Mitsuko Uchida - FT.com

White House Starts a Mini-War in Africa | FDL News Desk

Why do we always "seek out monsters to destroy"
and forget MacArthur's advice?

White House Starts a Mini-War in Africa | FDL News Desk

Now Chuck Schumer is just toying with China

Currency devaluation is an easy political call and the evidence for it seems strong. However:

"I wonder if we’ll ever learn. We kept pressuring countries like Japan, Germany and Switzerland to appreciate their currencies. And then their currencies do appreciate very sharply. But the current account surpluses remain very large, because currency appreciation doesn’t address the root cause of those surpluses. Now we are engaged in the same fruitless quest with China. What a waste of time."



TheMoneyIllusion � Now Chuck Schumer is just toying with China

Thursday, October 13, 2011

DVA Gains

"It's so bad that it is good"

Statement 159 Helps Unhealthy Banks Book Healthy Earnings

Nein, Nein, Nein

Limerick Poems on Finance and Economics by Dr. Goose - Limericks �conomiques: Taxed to the Nines

Clive, don’t change the subject

The problem is demand, not regulatory or tax uncertainty. The argument matters because of the policy implications. If the demand problem is not acknowledged then all the Republicans try to do is reduce taxes and do away with regulations.

Clive, don’t change the subject | Economic Policy Institute

Did Fannie Cause the Disaster?

This has become a very partisan argument. Republicans blame the GSE's and CRA for the sub-prime disaster and the liberal Democrats feel obliged to defend them. The defense is weak. Even though they were late to the game, the GSEs certainly poured oil on the sub-prime fire and made a bad situation much worse. Much more than any Wall Street bank, the GSEs are an example of privatization of profits and the socialization of risk. How much of their bonuses have Johnson and Raines returned?

Did Fannie Cause the Disaster? by Jeff Madrick and Frank Partnoy | The New York Review of Books

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

What Smaller Government Looks Like in the US

A shocking table. Half of the decline in government related employment (25o,000 workers) is in education. Not a way to win the future. More like WTF.

The Street Light: What Smaller Government Looks Like in the US

Econbrowser: Crowding Out Watch, Again

Econbrowser: Crowding Out Watch, Again:

TIPS spreads are negative.
At TBP Conference yesterday, there were still strategists worried about inflation. But then again there were hedge fund managers calling for 10,000 on gold.
From the comments:
"I will also note that a lot of the decline took place after the end of purchases under QE2 at end-2011Q2." So it is not just the Treasury manipulating the markets.

The Woman Who Knew Too Much

Elizabeth Warren for Senate


The Woman Who Knew Too Much | Politics | Vanity Fair

Tax Ju Addicted to tax havens: The secret life of the FTSE 100


How tax havens work: UK edition. All but two of 100 companies have tax haven subs. The tax (avoidance) department of most multinationals is seen as a revenue center. Providing tax avoidance products is also a large part of the product line of investment banks.

Tax Justice Network: Addicted to tax havens: The secret life of the FTSE 100

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Two Novels That Can Change Your Life

Lots of rich white fund managers love Atlas Shrugged.

QOTD: Two Novels That Can Change Your Life | The Big Picture

SEC Charges Bank Executives With Hiding Millions of Dollars in Losses During 2008 Financial Crisis

Obama was wrong. There were many illegal acts by banks and bank executives during the crisis. The charges have just not been filed. This is the first charge that I have seen.

“Today’s charges reflect an all too familiar pattern – corporate executives once seen as rising stars embrace deception to avoid losses and conceal negative news, with investors and the FDIC insurance fund left to pick up the pieces,” said Robert Khuzami, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. “But accountability for these executives begins today.”

But when will John Mack of Morgan Stanley or Dick Fuld of Lehman be charged?


SEC Charges Bank Executives With Hiding Millions of Dollars in Losses During 2008 Financial Crisis

Economic crisis: This time was different, and could have been more different still | The Economist

The fed could have done more.

Economic crisis: This time was different, and could have been more different still | The Economist

If Banks Are Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Have Banks - NYTimes.com

If Banks Are Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Have Banks - NYTimes.com

Saturday, October 08, 2011

Did Steve Jobs give good advice? | The Moral Sciences Club | Big Think

Just settle. Most of us have to.

Did Steve Jobs give good advice? | The Moral Sciences Club | Big Think:

"Now notice: doing what you love, and never settling until you find it, is a costly signal of your career prospects. Since following this advice tends to go better for really capable people, they pay a smaller price for following it. So endorsing this strategy in a way that makes you more likely to follow it is a way to signal your status."

Better advice
"Reconcile yourself to the limits of your talent and temperament and find the most satisfactory compromise between what you love to do and what you need to do feed your children" is rather less stirring, "


And from the comments:
"The advice is more traditionally given in relation to marriage. If you go into a relationship thinking that you’re settling, you’ve undermined it from the start. Of course you’re settling and making compromises – but the brain has a wonderful capacity to ignore this fact if you let it. Some people honestly believe they have the perfect partner,
And I think there’s an analogy here to be drawn with careers."

Solar System Scale Model

Solar System Scale Model

In The Long Run We Are Undead

Another view of what OWS is saying. The zombie is wrong

In The Long Run We Are Undead - NYTimes.com

(The Wall Street Occupiers and the Democratic Party)

Occupy Wall Street is not the Tea Party of the Democrats.

Robert Reich (The Wall Street Occupiers and the Democratic Party)

U.S. Panel’s Advice on Prostate Test Draws Opposition

Medicine too, is part art, part science.

"At the heart of its advice is the startling finding that thousands of doctors in the United States have been doing many of their patients more harm than good."

U.S. Panel’s Advice on Prostate Test Draws Opposition - NYTimes.com:

Occupying Occupying Wall Street?

What is the message of occupying wall street?



EconoSpeak: Occupying Occupying Wall Street?

Friday, October 07, 2011

Monday, September 26, 2011

What are the side costs of trade with China? — Marginal Revolution

This is an important new paper which challenges trade theory.

What are the side costs of trade with China? — Marginal Revolution

For You, a 40 Point Stock Checklist.

For You, a 40 Point Stock Checklist.

The Capital Spectator: Tactical ETF Review: 9.26.2011

The Capital Spectator: Tactical ETF Review: 9.26.2011

Learning from Solyndra

Learning from Solyndra | Capital Gains and Games


It is better policy to have the government's involvement at the macro level -- setting the price -- rather than at the micro level -- picking the winners.� The Solyndra scandal is a good example of why.

Bits and Pieces: The Freshman Pledge

Bits and Pieces: The Freshman Pledge

"Confidence Men"


things could have been much worse

Review of Ron Suskind's "Confidence Men":

The Trillion Dollar War of Choice, and the Constraints on Macro Policy

Econbrowser: The Trillion Dollar War of Choice, and the Constraints on Macro Policy

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

The most powerful AD denier of all

TheMoneyIllusion � The most powerful AD denier of all:

So for 200 year rapid productivity growth didn’t cause any serious unemployment problems in America, but now, right after NGDP collapses, we are to believe it is producing mass unemployment, even though recent productivity gains have been rather low.� I’m at a loss for words.� We elected a Luddite as President of the United States.

The wisdom of crowds

It is all about designing the right game and the right question.

TheMoneyIllusion � The wisdom of crowds

Res Politica versus Res Economica

Good piece for college students contemplating a major.

Res Politica versus Res Economica | The Big Picture

Cynical about Confidence

Overconfidence is a force so powerful that can be used for either good or evil.

Cynical about Confidence, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

Your lying eyes

Seeing is Hearing: The McGurk Effect — Marginal Revolution

Obama's experience

Steve Sailer's iSteve Blog: Obama's experience

This is not class warfare. It's math

A Few Important Views on the President’s Budget Plan | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy:


This is not class warfare.� It’s math.� The money is going to have to come from someplace.� And if we’re not willing to ask those who’ve done extraordinarily well to help America close the deficit and we are trying to reach that same target of $4 trillion, then the logic, the math says everybody else has to do a whole lot more:� We’ve got to put the entire burden on the middle class and the poor.� We’ve got to scale back on the investments that have always helped our economy grow.� We’ve got to settle for second-rate roads and second-rate bridges and second-rate airports, and schools that are crumbling.

The world must insist that Europe act - FT.com

The world must insist that Europe act - FT.com:

Great paragraph by Larry Summers. Also a good summary for his most recent term in office.

It was simply this: policymakers acted without illusion. At every juncture they made the minimum commitments necessary to avoid imminent disaster – offering optimistic rhetoric, but never taking the steps that even they believed could offer the prospect of decisive victory. They were tragically caught in a kind of no-man’s-land – unable to reverse a course to which they had committed so much, but also unable to generate the political will to take forward steps that gave any realistic prospect of success. Ultimately, after years of needless suffering, their policy collapsed around them.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Noahpinion: Great Stagnation...or Great Relocation?

Why is America stagnating? There is no great stagnation, just relocation of production to where the people are.

Noahpinion: Great Stagnation...or Great Relocation?

And a counter from the economist.

If transport costs are low, there is no need to be close to population to be a producer.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Asians pulling away in SAT scores

Except my asians...

Steve Sailer's iSteve Blog: Asians pulling away in SAT scores

Why Perry Might Win

Oh it’s going to be a “fun” year | Firedoglake: -Perry leads Romney only 27-23 among GOP voters opposed to ending Medicare. But with the 12% who do support eliminating it Perry leads Romney 43-5, accounting for much of his overall lead…

-Romney leads Perry 23-18 among GOP voters who believe in global warming…but that’s only 27% of them. With the 62% who don’t believe in it Perry’s up 38-14. One interesting note on those numbers- Perry’s favorability with Republicans who believe in global warming is 37/50. Are those folks going to vote for him in the general election if he ends up as the nominee?

System Failure

Daniel Carpenter for Democracy Journal: System Failure

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The Making of an Infographic: Visualizing US/China Trade

The Making of an Infographic: Visualizing US/China Trade

The late American jobs machine

The late American jobs machine � Consider the Evidence:

The following paragraph sums up the problem. Management has more leverage versus employees.

What caused this collapse of the American jobs machine? I think the most convincing explanation is a shift in management’s incentives and in its leverage relative to employees. According to Robert Gordon, this has its origins in the 1980s and 1990s but emerged in full force in the early 2000s:

Saturday, September 10, 2011

EconoSpeak: Political Economy and Financialization

An explanation of why corporations now act as they do. They do not act for the benefit of the country in which they reside. Nor do they act for the benefit of the corporation. They are driven for what benefits the personal portfolio of the CEO.


EconoSpeak: Political Economy and Financialization:

That is, the top tier of ownership and control is vested in individuals who act in their self interest and in accordance with their intellectual perspective—usually related. �General Electric, for instance, may benefit as a corporate entity from lower health care costs, but those who own and run it are not tied to that firm, or its current facilities, markets or organizational hierarchies, for life. �At the highest levels, individuals see their economic interest as that of maximizing the value of their personal portfolios.

American Exceptionalism |

American Exceptionalism | Truthout:

the highest poverty rate, both generally and for children;

the greatest inequality of incomes;

the lowest government spending as a percentage of GDP on social programs for the disadvantaged;

the lowest number of paid holiday, annual and maternity leaves;

the lowest score on the United Nations' index of "material well-being of children";

the worst score on the United Nations' gender inequality index;

the lowest social mobility;

the highest public and private expenditure on health care as a portion of GDP;

the highest infant mortality rate; prevalence of mental health problems; obesity rate; portion of people going without health care due to cost; low-birth-weight children per capita (except for Japan); consumption of antidepressants per capita;

the shortest life expectancy at birth (except for Denmark and Portugal);

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

The Secrets of High Frequency Trading

Nothing new. No secrets, but a good summary.

The Secrets of High Frequency Trading | AllAboutAlpha: Hedge Fund Trends & Alternative Investment Analysis

Fears of America’s Decline Since 9/11 : The New Yorker

Conservatives and libertarians "hate fast trains and efficient airports for the same reason that seventeenth century Protestants hate the beautiful Baroque churches of Rome when they saw them: they were luxurious symbols of an earthly power that they despised... We don't have a better infrastructure or decent elementary education exactly because any people are willing to sacrifice faster movement between our great cities or better informed children, in support of their belief that the government should always be given as little money as possible."


Fears of America’s Decline Since 9/11 : The New Yorker

Tomgram: Noam Chomsky, The Imperial Mentality and 9/11 | TomDispatch

As we think about 9-11, it is important to remember the havoc it caused in the rest of the world. Caused by US response to the act, not the act itself.

Tomgram: Noam Chomsky, The Imperial Mentality and 9/11 | TomDispatch

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Economist's View: Shaping the Debate over Job Creation

Economist's View: Shaping the Debate over Job Creation: "It seems to me what the president and his advisors are really saying is that they are no match for the Republicans when it comes to shaping a debate in their favor. Instead of cowering under the threat of what Republicans might do if they take certain steps, e.g. not allowing a sufficient jobs plan to pass, and then hanging any failures on the obstructionists, they have given up before even trying. They are convinced Republicans will win the debate."

How to make the best of the long malaise - FT.com

The gap between the real answer and politics is wider than ever.

How to make the best of the long malaise - FT.com

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Debt Ceiling: 10 Lessons Beyond That Crisis | The Big Picture

Why S&P Downgraded

Economist's View: The S&P Downgrade: Is the Sky Falling?: "S&P may also be covering itself after doing so poorly prior to the financial meltdown. If S&P leaves the outlook at AAA and problems emerge down the road, it's credibility will be even more shot than it is already and likely irreparable. Missing another big problem is essentially a death sentence. But if it downgrades the debt and nothing happens, it can claim its warnings and the downgrade were key factors in persuading people in both the public and private sectors to take steps to avoid disaster. It's Chicken Little claiming that his warnings stopped the sky from falling."

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Foxconn to replace workers with 1 million robots in 3 years

How to reduce suicides at Foxconn plants:


Foxconn to replace workers with 1 million robots in 3 years

China has lost more manufacturing jobs in the last five years than the US has manufacturing jobs.

Friday, July 22, 2011

America's Cold Civil War - The Dish | By Andrew Sullivan - The Daily Beast

America's Cold Civil War - The Dish | By Andrew Sullivan - The Daily Beast

Barack Obama: The Democrats’ Richard Nixon?

Barack Obama: The Democrats’ Richard Nixon?:

"Here are a few examples of Obama's effective conservatism:

His stimulus bill was half the size that his advisers thought necessary;
He continued Bush’s war and national security policies without change and even retained Bush’s defense secretary;
He put forward a health plan almost identical to those that had been supported by Republicans such as Mitt Romney in the recent past, pointedly rejecting the single-payer option favored by liberals;
He caved to conservative demands that the Bush tax cuts be extended without getting any quid pro quo whatsoever;
And in the past few weeks he has supported deficit reductions that go far beyond those offered by Republicans."

Congress Continues Debate Over Whether Or Not Nation Should Be Economically Ruined

Congress Continues Debate Over Whether Or Not Nation Should Be Economically Ruined

Wednesday, July 20, 2011