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Sunday, January 24, 2010

Cool Ad Watch - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Cool Ad Watch -

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

The Quants: Formula for a Meltdown - WSJ.com

The Quants: Formula for a Meltdown - WSJ.com

Brown voters support healthcare bill

Another in the list of ironies of the MA debacle.

Quelle Surprise! Proposed Restrictions on Proprietary Trading are a Joke � naked capitalism

Not true. As stated in one of the quotes, limit prop trading by limiting VAR.
Or look at internal reporting systems or even resumes of traders. The banks know what prop trading is.

Quelle Surprise! Proposed Restrictions on Proprietary Trading are a Joke � naked capitalism

One Year Of Obama - Forbes.com

A conservative rates Obama.

One Year Of Obama - Forbes.com

Joseph Stiglitz: Why we have to change capitalism - Telegraph

Joseph Stiglitz: Why we have to change capitalism - Telegraph

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Watching CNBC is like Doctors watching General Hospital

The reason for the recent selloff is that the market has rallied over 60% since last March's lows and is overvalued. Obama's bank proposal is not the ultimate cause.
Bank earnings will arguably be more stable without prop trading. GS has traded at a lower multiple than JPM or Citi because of its high weight of prop trading in its earnings.



The Big Picture � Blog Archive � Market Correction Underway

Stupidest thing I have read today

Bosses are always smarter?
This guy has never worked for anyone.


Pyramid Power, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

Hedging America | The New Republic

And economists review John Cassidy.

Hedging America | The New Republic

The Epicurean Dealmaker: Conventional Wisdom

The Epicurean Dealmaker: Conventional Wisdom

Why America and China will clash

Expect to see more and more of these types of columns. Also telling are the comments. Too many people look at growth as a zero sum game. Media and writers thrive on conflicts.

FT.com / Columnists / Gideon Rachman - Why America and China will clash

Saturday, January 16, 2010

That consumption binge? It’s mostly health care

Dated but very interesting. Solving the healthcare problem would help solve national savings problem. Turns out the growth of healthcare spending is about 60% of the growth of consumption spending.

That consumption binge? It’s mostly health care

Friday, January 15, 2010

Getting drunk as signaling behavior



Marginal Revolution: Getting drunk as signaling behavior

The Big Picture � Blog Archive � Record Bank Bonuses Based On Record Bank Fraud

The Big Picture � Blog Archive � Record Bank Bonuses Based On Record Bank Fraud

Beat the Press Archive | The American Prospect

The banks will not be able to pass on the bank tax to consumers if the market is competitive .

Beat the Press Archive | The American Prospect

Moral Bankruptcy | Mother Jones


Why are we letting Wall Street off so easy.
And not just Wall Street, all of crony capitalism.

Reasons why Google defied China POLL | CHINAYOUREN

Reasons why Google defied China POLL | CHINAYOUREN

Tim Duy's Fed Watch: It's Not About Interest Rates Yet

Consumer spending is rising again, but it is well below trend lines of 2007.

Tim Duy's Fed Watch: It's Not About Interest Rates Yet

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Sunday, January 10, 2010

The Military-Industrial Compex is Ruining the Economy � naked capitalism

This is the most important post of the year. Nobody is listening. Part of the reason I supported Obama was to have someone who might be willing to take on this complex. Unfortunately he is realizing the path to maintain power is to ally with Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex.

Guest Post: The Military-Industrial Compex is Ruining the Economy � naked capitalism

Lessons of 1937

Keep rates low for a long time. Do not worry about inflation yet.

Twenty-Cent Paradigms: Lessons of 1937

“Fire Geithner Now!”

This is a growing trend as Wall Street crony capitalism grates. There are too many biased advisors to the government.

“Fire Geithner Now!” � naked capitalism

Saturday, January 09, 2010

My life is simple


Compared to Pete Orszag:

"it’s complicated when a divorced father of two with a very important job gets very publicly engaged to a 31-year-old financial correspondent for ABC News, Bianna Golodryga, just weeks after his ex-girlfriend gave birth to his daughter."

It is all about food

Stop having boring tuna, stop having a boring life
And the remix.

Hell freezes over

WSJ has a rational article about terror threat.

Undressing the Terror Threat - WSJ.com

Maybe they read  Glen Greenwald on the same day.

Friday, January 08, 2010

Five Ways to Become Happier Today | Tal Ben-Shahar | Big Think

I am happy: five for five.
- Accept things
- Time affluence
- Regular excercise
- Gratitude
- Simple life


Five Ways to Become Happier Today | Tal Ben-Shahar | Big Think

Happiness

What is on your list for making yourself happier today?

You can be happier by reading this post | Penelope Trunk's Brazen Careerist

China v Japan:



China v Japan: Bubble trouble? | The Economist

Share prices by industry: Staging a recovery | The Economist

Looks like my portfolio.

Share prices by industry: Staging a recovery | The Economist

How Crony Capitalism works

A graphical display.

NNDB Mapper

Records being set

Not the kind of records you want to see.

Calculated Risk: Reis: U.S. Office Vacancy Rate Hits 15 Year High at 17 Percent

Don’t Forget Financial Sector Reform

Seems to be slipping onto the backburner. The confidence of the banks and renewed lobbying efforts and the fact that 2010 is an election year will make much of this difficult. Whether Dodd will try to leave a legacy or not might determine the course of reform.

Don’t Forget Financial Sector Reform 

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Great news

Now I will have something to do during those long drives.

Driven to Distraction - Despite Risks, Carmakers Integrate the Web With the Dash - Series - NYTimes.com

Robert Rubin On How To Make Capitalism Work Again - Newsweek.com

Rubin's recommendations for financial reform:
  • There should be greatly increased capital and margin requirements for derivatives and other instruments of financial engineering to create a greater cushion when trouble develops and to reduce risk exposure. I developed this view during my many years of working with derivatives before entering government, as described in my 2003 book, In an Uncertain World.
  • Standard derivative contracts should trade on an exchange to increase transparency. Transactions that are custom designed would not be exchange traded but would be subject to the same capital and margin requirements as listed transactions. Disclosure requirements could be considered for customized transactions, to provide private counterparties and regulators with the transparency to understand the risks.
  • There should be two sets of more stringent leverage limitations for systemically significant institutions, one defined by risk-based models and the second by much simpler measures, since mathematical models can't capture the full range of real-world possibilities.
  • There should be significant constraints on off-balance-sheet financing; for example, institutions must retain ownership of a portion of off-balance-sheet assets.
  • We need a change in accounting systems to avoid the artificial effects of mark-to-market accounting for illiquid assets on balance sheets and on markets. There are other accounting approaches that would better reflect long-run values for these assets.
  • We should also provide effective mechanisms for dealing with systemically important nonbank financial institutions—including bank holding companies—that get into trouble, to mitigate "too big to fail" concerns, but practical ways to do this need to be developed.
  • There should be greatly increased protections, both to safeguard consumers and to reduce systemic risk. The elements should include readily understandable disclosure, suitability requirements, prohibition of practices or instruments inherently susceptible to abuse, and, if some practical way can be found, personalized advice for the most vulnerable consumers.

Robert Rubin On How To Make Capitalism Work Again - Newsweek.com

Financial Armageddon: Neither Surprising Nor Containable

CRE: how much of this is in the market?
There is much focus on the upcoming CRE problems. 500 billion in loans coming due this year and next.

Financial Armageddon: Neither Surprising Nor Containable

The fundamentals will continue to deteriorate.

Residential Real Estate Bubble in China

There are signs of a bubble in residential real estate in Shanghai. What will the catalyst be for the unwind and how to trade it are not clear to me.

“According to research results released yesterday by DTZ, the average sale price in the city’s most luxurious residential properties has soared above 50,000 yuan (US$7,324) per square meter in Shanghai this year from about 7,000 yuan per square meter seven years ago.
Sales by value of high-end properties within the city’s Inner Ring Road more than doubled in the first nine months of this year, with the average price surging to 37,000 yuan per square meter from 24,000 yuan at the beginning of this year.”
While the population of China is large, it is finite. And as A. Gary Schilling pointed out at the beginning of 2009, the number of Chinese with any disposable income is shockingly small. At some point the pool of greater fools will run out, or some will need to cash out to meet expenses. Then, the rush for te exits will start. The problem, as always, is when this happens.

Ten percent annual GDP growth can hide the bubble for a long time. Or China could grow into the real estate. Most of the current stock of residential is still inferior.

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

On Advice

Things to think about when you ask or give advice. Or help on problem sets.
Or why not to hire expensive meta careerists or  "life coaches"

Think you are smarter than a college freshman

Answer question number two.

Women Who Don’t Live Alone Add More Weight, Study Finds - NYTimes.com

Better to be Alone?

Women Who Don’t Live Alone Add More Weight, Study Finds - NYTimes.com

What’s Our Line? - NYTimes.com

Kinsley is asking the wrong question here. Too many Americans are. We all should be asking why " an innocent child killed accidentally in our pursuit of terrorists gets no justice at all."



Op-Ed Contributor - What’s Our Line? - NYTimes.com

The Problem with Wall Street

Recent books about Wall Street do more to reveal its flaws.

Guest Post: Recent Lehman MD Reviews “The Murder of Lehman Brothers” � naked capitalism

Saturday, January 02, 2010

Advice for your children: 2010-2020

- Calculus
- Learn languages
- Buy and hold
- No debt
- Focus on execution

From the comments
- Luck will play a large role.
- The barriers we place on our minds are our biggest

Moneyball quote:

The time that you will share with people you enjoy on this earth will be brief. Ask yourself how you want to allocate that time.

Marginal Revolution: Advice for your children: 2010-2020

How to Train the Aging Brain - NYTimes.com

Hits a little too close to home.

Adult Learning - Neuroscience - How to Train the Aging Brain - NYTimes.com

The economic theories of the MLA

"If you want lifetime employment, become a judge or a priest."
Academia is not as cushy as I thought. Only 27 percent of college instructors are tenure or tenure track.


Marginal Revolution: The economic theories of the MLA