Sunday, December 30, 2007
Economist's View: Increased Calls for Government Intervention into Private Markets
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Friday, December 28, 2007
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Stocking coal | Free exchange | Economist.com
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Greg Mankiw's Blog: How do the right and left differ?
Mark Thoma responds.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Monday, November 26, 2007
EconLog, Shiller is bold?, Arnold Kling: Library of Economics and Liberty
FT.com / Columnists / Lawrence Summers - Wake up to the dangers of a deepening crisis
Saturday, November 24, 2007
EconLog, A Fertile Criticism of Happiness Research?, Bryan Caplan: Library of Economics and Liberty
Friday, November 23, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Also can add a comment on the size of the losses.
Some estimates of the size of the sub-prime damages appear to us to be double-counting the losses. They add loan defaults to CDO and MBS write-downs and financial institution write-offs. In our view, there’s only one economic loss among these – the foreclosure minus the recovery. The rest are timing decisions in which some are realizing their losses in zero-sum financial calculations, while others will realize gains later.
- On a broader scale, the realized mortgage losses (a foreclosure minus a recovery) are a subset of unrealized losses (over the last couple of years as real estate prices declined). Those followed largely-unrealized gains (the seven-year boom from 1998-2005). From the standpoint of the economic outlook, we think the still-large net real estate gains over the last decade, by adding to household net worth, act as a cushion against a recession.
The Rise and Fall of Subprime Mortgages - Economic Letter, Nov. 2007 - FRB Dallas
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Monday, November 05, 2007
James Fallows (November 05, 2007) - Maybe Nov 3 is out too?
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Marginal Revolution: George Bush knows how to keep a meeting short
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Thursday, November 01, 2007
EconLog, Another One of My Health Care Debate Peeves, Arnold Kling: Library of Economics and Liberty
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Gene Expression: James Watson Tells the Inconvenient Truth: Faces the Consequences
Tim Russert: Stop the Inanity | The American Prospect
Monday, October 29, 2007
Finance Blog - Market Movers by Felix Salmon: The Weakness of Quant Funds - Portfolio.com
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Friday, October 26, 2007
The middle is moving on up | Free exchange | Economist.com
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Friday, October 19, 2007
fryer_levittbabiesrevision.pdf (application/pdf Object)
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Friday, October 12, 2007
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Finance Blog - Market Movers by Felix Salmon: VaR Question of the Day - Portfolio.com
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Construction is only 5.5% of employment and 4.8 % of profits( less than in 1998)
Real Estate in the U.S. Economy - Poole Speech - St. Louis Fed
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Clark comes down on cultural explanation. A little more optimistic because cultures can change.
Goodbye Lusaka, Farewell to Alms | Free exchange | Economist.com
Three types of borrowers:
Hedge Financing: Can pay both principal and interest out of cash flows.
Speculative Financing: Can pay interest but must cover principal by new financing.
Ponzi Financing: Cash flow covers neither interest nor principal. Must sell assets or borrow more to cover interest payments.
When the crash comes
Monday, October 08, 2007
The law of unintended consequences for closing large institutions for the mentally impaired.
The Mentally Ill, Behind Bars - New York Times
Sunday, October 07, 2007
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Higher than anticipated draws on bank credit lines made banks less likely to led to new borrowers.
Kohn is still worried about inflation.
FRB: Speech--Kohn, Economic Outlook--October 5, 2007
Friday, October 05, 2007
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - A better way to organise securities markets
Role of the Fed.
The Fed must protect the economy. Even if the market brought a problem upon itself the Fed must protect the market to save the economy.
There is not always a clear policy. There is only one clear instrument - interest rates.
New markets and regulation
The myth: Derivatives and securitization diversifies risk so that individual firms will not be harmed.
Tradeoff between supervision & regulation. and protection.
Banks want want protection but not regulation.
Securitization's problem is that if banks immediately resell loans they will not care about credit.
At the second or third derivative nobody knows who the originator is.
No regulator was aware how big the problem was.
Did not know how big subprime mortgage business was 1.25 trillion.
Thought it was 100 200 billion.
Big institutions provide stabillity
Small institutions at risk
What happens if problem comes when economy is not strong.
Need more regulation bt not clear what.
Growth is not as bad as top line numbers might suggest.
Since population is not growing and is aging growth should not be as fast
Price Deflation did not harm spending.
Cpi at -1. 1 does not change how Ms Watanabe buys and sells.
Asset deflation harmed spending
Asset deflation is a big worry.
Why is it not a worry
Disinflation from services still to come from India
Inflation low everywhere
All central banks are targeting inflation.
All central banks are targeting inflation.
Anyting that can be imported from china has not gone up in 10 years Other half of cpi is made up.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Gifts that keep on giving | Free exchange | Economist.com
Monday, October 01, 2007
Finance Blog - Market Movers by Felix Salmon: Cognitive Dissonance at Skype - Portfolio.com
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Greg Mankiw's Blog: How big a problem is lack of health insurance?
Friday, September 21, 2007
The Independent differs. And the Economist is cynical as well.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Absolute Capital freezes investor redemptions after founder quits - MarketWatch
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
YouNotSneaky!: Do Americans work more because of status concerns? Maybe, but in all honesty, it's hard to tell
The current chapter in my chinese textbook, which is printed in China, discusses the issues of
保护环境 (protecting the environment). The Chinese domestically care very much about this.
The Becker-Posner Blog: China's Air Pollution-Becker
Monday, September 17, 2007
Friday, September 14, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Monday, September 10, 2007
The Oil Drum | When Is "Global Peak Energy?" According to Publicly Available Data, Probably Sooner Than You Think
There's finally proof that boys do ruin schools for girls. - By Tim Harford - Slate Magazine
Friday, September 07, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Monday, August 27, 2007
Thursday, August 23, 2007
The Big Picture | "Dear Investor" -- Quant Letters to Clients
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » That yen-carry trade and Mrs Watanabe’s ‘new gig’
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Friday, August 10, 2007
village voice > news > Rudy's Five Big Lies About 9/11 by Wayne Barrett
with special research assistance by Alexandra Kahan
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Who Are Americans To Think That Freedom Is Theirs To Spread ? - New York Times
Calculated Risk: Fed's Stern: "Painful and Belated Learning"
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal
blog.pmarca.com: Age and the entrepreneur, part 1: Some data
Monday, August 06, 2007
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Monday, July 16, 2007
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Monday, July 09, 2007
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Negotiating the tension between “rational” policy choices and “irrational” preferences and anxieties—between the desirability of more productivity and the desire to preserve a way of life—is what democratic politics is all about. It is a messy negotiation. Having the franchise be universal makes it even messier. If all policy decisions were straightforward economic calculations, it might be simpler and better for everyone if only people who had a grasp of economics participated in the political process. But many policy decisions don’t have an optimal answer. They involve values that are deeply contested: when life begins, whether liberty is more important than equality, how racial integration is best achieved (and what would count as genuine integration).In the end, the group that loses these contests must abide by the outcome, must regard the wishes of the majority as legitimate. The only way it can be expected to do so is if it has been made to feel that it had a voice in the process, even if that voice is, in practical terms, symbolic. A great virtue of democratic polities is stability. The toleration of silly opinions is (to speak like an economist) a small price to pay for it.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Monday, June 18, 2007
talks about the limited " versatility of combined general-specific human capital that a lateral entrant brings to a high level government job of a managerial or advisory rather than technical character." In other words smart people might just be bad managers for three reasons: 1) intelligent people often neglect other traits of good management and rely only on intelligence, 2) logical reasoning does not always provide the best way to solve political problems, 3) smart people often don't listen to staff who are not as smart as they are but might know more about a specific problem.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Monday, June 04, 2007
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Gorden Bell of Microsoft, one of the original Digital Computer guys who drove the establishment of the net., thinks about what we will do when we have information about everything.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Monday, May 21, 2007
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Saturday, April 14, 2007
"Vikram is a brilliant guy and he's got a real sense for markets and risk and an ability to lead people to the right place," says Philip Purcell, the former Morgan Stanley chief executive. "He'd be a net plus for Citi."
Wish he'd said that in April 2005.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Monday, April 02, 2007
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Monday, March 19, 2007
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Friday, March 16, 2007
His new book the Second Chance confirms his place as one of the best thinkers on foreign policy that we have. He sees the biggest danger now is that America has a notion that we are the forcesof good against evil and our moral superiority justifies immoral acts. Bush has squandered credibility, legitimacy and respect for our power.
It also confirms John Stewart's place as one of the more insightful book reviewers that we have.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Monday, March 12, 2007
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Friday, March 09, 2007
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Monday, March 05, 2007
Friday, March 02, 2007
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Friday, February 23, 2007
The articles are also revealing about press relations. The WSJ journalists are good and sympathetic friends while the NYT (Reuters story) gets the bio all wrong.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
"The bottom line for housing is that the concerns we used to hear about the possibility of a devastating collapse—one that might be big enough to cause a recession in the U.S. economy—while not fully allayed have diminished. Moreover, while the future for housing activity remains uncertain, I think there is a reasonable chance that housing is in the process of stabilizing, which would mean that it would put a considerably smaller drag on the economy going forward."
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Friday, February 09, 2007
Why do Endowments outperform?
1) Simplicity of Mission
Enhance and preserve the purchasing power of the endowment
Endowment pays for 30% of the running costs of the university.
Pays 15% of the financial aid - but the absolute dollar amount has doubled over last five years.
2) Permanent Capital
Long investment horizon
3) Right asset allocation versus the right amount of return and risk.
Right risk management
What is Changing
1) Vehicles are changing
What are the borders among geographies and instruments?
Derivative products have reduced barrier to entry (exotic mortgages make home buying easy)
ETF's have made international investing cheap
2) Risk factors are evolving
What are the new risk factors
Sovereign risk has decreased - how to measure emerging market risk?
As sovereign risk has decreased bottom up opportunities are available in many markets.
3) Asset allocations are changing
The Environment is Different
1) Huge imbalances
Trade and capital flows
2) Realignment of the global economy
Huge wealth transfer
Commodity prices and cheap labor have moved wealth to the poor but
"the irony of our times is that the poor countries are using surpluses to fund rich countries"
The hybrid model of management
Internal versus external.
Capacity of managers
Cannot play catch up
Cannot pay thru distribution of equity
Nor can the enterprise value of the organization be realized.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Monday, February 05, 2007
"Yet in this particular instance I find that my own answer is quite simple. Those poor who are getting richer in other countries are not moving from one level of luxury to a slightly higher one. They are moving from destitution, from not knowing where the next meal is coming from, to something close to a middle class income. They are doing this in their hundreds of millions, across the globe, and that has to be a good thing."
Brad Delong agrees with this but still outlines "an unequal society cannot help but be an unjust society" because of the fact the some are able to capture more than they deserve.
And the Angry Bear thinks it is too simple an explanation.
Greg Mankiw adds
To what extent is inequality of outcomes a source for concern in and of itself?
adds the point in his speech "The Level and Distribution of Economic Well-Being" that inequality has increased in all professions, including professional sports.
Therefore something more subtle is going on than rich CEO's paying themselves.