Inside the Fed in 2006 - A Coming Crisis, and Banter - NYTimes.com:
This makes me feel a little better for getting it wrong. A lot of smarter guys were wrong.
" The transcripts of the 2006 meetings, released after a standard five-year delay, clearly show some of the nation’s pre-eminent economic minds did not fully understand the basic mechanics of the economy that they were charged with shepherding. The problem was not a lack of information; it was a lack of comprehension, born in part of their deep confidence in economic forecasting models that turned out to be broken.
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