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Showing posts with label Causes of Crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Causes of Crash. Show all posts

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Safety: Blow-ups happen

Safety: Blow-ups happen | The Economist:


The below quote highlights the issue with models and stated probabilities.

Modelling based on experience with previous plants suggests that the risk of a significant radiation leak from generation I reactors was between one in 1,000 and one in 10,000 per reactor year. For generation II it is between one in 10,000 and one in 1m. For generation III it should be between one in 1m and one in 100m. These calculations do not reflect the absolute risks as experienced in the real world; there have been five major releases of radioactivity (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and the three reactors at Fukushima) in only 14,000 reactor years of operation. But the trend towards safety seems to be real.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Inside the Fed in 2006 - A Coming Crisis, and Banter - NYTimes.com

Inside the Fed in 2006 - A Coming Crisis, and Banter - NYTimes.com:

This makes me feel a little better for getting it wrong. A lot of smarter guys were wrong.

" The transcripts of the 2006 meetings, released after a standard five-year delay, clearly show some of the nation’s pre-eminent economic minds did not fully understand the basic mechanics of the economy that they were charged with shepherding. The problem was not a lack of information; it was a lack of comprehension, born in part of their deep confidence in economic forecasting models that turned out to be broken.