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By the Numbers: Comparing Spending by Gun Rights and Gun Control Interest Groups

It is pretty clear by looking at these numbers that it is hard to predict current law will change by much.
There is very little support for gun control. People like the idea in abstract but are not willing to commit to change. On the other hand, gun rights advocates can be motivated.

By the Numbers: Comparing Spending by Gun Rights and Gun Control Interest Groups - ProPublica

Let’s Give Up on the Constitution


Why follow the rules of "a group of white propertied men who have been dead for two centuries, knew nothing of our present situation, acted illegally under existing law and thought it was fine to own slaves "?



Let’s Give Up on the Constitution - NYTimes.com:

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Like Math? Thank Your Motivation, Not IQ

Like Math? Thank Your Motivation, Not IQ: Scientific American:

 Looks like Tiger Mom had it half-right: Motivation to work hard and good study techniques, not IQ, lead to better math skills, a new study shows.�

Mapping China's Red Nobility

Fascinating graphic of the lines of the eight immortals.
I would like to see something like this for the United States. Who would the top ten families be here and how would they have changed over time?


Mapping China's Red Nobility - Bloomberg

World's Longest High-Speed Rail Line Opens in China - NYTimes.com

World's Longest High-Speed Rail Line Opens in China - NYTimes.com:

Bullet trains traveling 300 kilometers an hour, or 186 miles an hour, began regular service between Beijing and Guangzhou, the main metropolis in southeastern China. Older trains still in service on a parallel rail line take 21 hours; Amtrak trains from New York to Miami, a shorter distance, still take nearly 30 hours.

New York Post, Daily News Blast NRA Speech

New York Post, Daily News Blast NRA Speech (PHOTOS) | TPM LiveWire

Meanwhile the gutless NYTimes:
 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/nra-calls-for-armed-guards-at-schools.html?hp&_r=0

The ownership question

Four most important questions in macro economic policy.


- Can we introduce a living wage without pricing some workers out of jobs?
- Can we tax companies more heavily without them moving their profits overseas, or cutting investment or shifting the burden onto workers or customers?
- Are there some macroeconomic policies - fiscal policies, wage-led growth, NGDP targeting (pdf) or whatever - that can create near-full employment?
- Is it possible to regulate banks sufficiently to avoid another financial crisis, whilst ensuring that they lend sufficiently to productive businesses?


Stumbling and Mumbling: The ownership question

Four State Department Officials Are Out After Benghazi Report

Four State Department Officials Are Out After Benghazi Report - NYTimes.com:

The following quote should be the lesson. Not firing some mid level bureaucrats.

“It is not reasonable nor feasible to tether U.S. forces at the ready to respond to protect every high-risk post in the world,” Mike Mullen, the retired admiral and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who served as vice chairman of the independent review, said Wednesday.

In Unusual Move, Cerberus to Sell Freedom Group, a Gun Company

In Unusual Move, Cerberus to Sell Freedom Group, a Gun Company - NYTimes.com:


Cerberus, a private equity and hedge fund firm that manages more than $20 billion, is owned by the billionaire financier Stephen A. Feinberg. His father, Martin Feinberg, lives in Newtown, Conn.,

In Reaction to Newtown, Connecticut, School Shooting Lawmakers Weigh In on Gun Control - WSJ.com

In Reaction to Newtown, Connecticut, School Shooting Lawmakers Weigh In on Gun Control - WSJ.com:

Some republicans are idiots.

 "I wish to God that she had had an M-4 in her office locked up" so that she could take "his head off before he can kill those precious kids," he said.

School Yoga Class Draws Religious Protest From Christians

School Yoga Class Draws Religious Protest From Christians - NYTimes.com:

America goes crazy, bit by bit:

 “They’re not just teaching physical poses, they’re teaching children how to think and how to make decisions,” Ms. Eady said. “They’re teaching children how to meditate and how to look within for peace and for comfort. They’re using this as a tool for many things beyond just stretching.”

Inequality: power vs human capital

Very important quote:
"Inequality, then, is better explained by power than by human capital or marginal productivity. "


Stumbling and Mumbling: Inequality: power vs human capital

Cassandra Does Tokyo: The Cats In The Hat Won't Be Coming Back

Cassandra Does Tokyo: The Cats In The Hat Won't Be Coming Back:

Lessons from the Olympus events (and many other similar crises):


 (1) Never, ever, EVER try and trade yourself out of a loss; (2) Operating companies should not speculate outside their area of expertise for speculating is hard-enough for dedicated speculators; (3) Coming clean early with mistakes almost always trumps getting caught later with dishonesty. (4) If following the herd down a perditious route, one must take care not to be the last one left; (5) Listen to all approaches by investment bankers with the utmost of cynicism; (6) There are few free lunches. (7) If your excuse is too implausible or convoluted to convince your old schoolteacher, it is half-baked and you will be caught in your deception. Japanese organizational inertia carries unstoppable forces that can be harnessed for much good, but, when it goes awry, is capable unthinkable stupidity.

Tiger Asia Admits Guilt in $60 Million Court Settlement -

Another example of insider information in the world of equity long short. Why is there no jail time?

Tiger Asia Admits Guilt in $60 Million Court Settlement - Bloomberg

Some Question Merit Aid at University of Oklahoma

Why can't we have a better press corp?
Merit aid should be praised, not open to "questions". Does the NYT question recruiting athelets?

Some Question Merit Aid at University of Oklahoma - NYTimes.com

The Conventional Wisdom Re Growth is Unwise

The Conventional Wisdom Re Growth is Unwise | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy:

" Treasury yields at 1.6% on one hand…Kennedy Airport on the other…doesn’t make sense."

Amtrak from Boston to DC less sense.

U.S. Students Still Lag Globally in Math and Science, Tests Show

U.S. Students Still Lag Globally in Math and Science, Tests Show - NYTimes.com:

Duh lede of the day. If you teach a child how to learn, then they will learn.

 “What’s remarkable is that in all the countries, this concept of an early start is there over and over again,” said Michael O. Martin, the other executive director of the center. “You can get the early childhood experience in a variety of ways, but it’s important you get it.”

CRAZY did not cause the financial crisis

Mispriced risk caused the financial crisis.



Mark O'Friel
C: 914-907-7144
O: 617-903-0251
F : 419-710-3449


U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030

I predict that half of these predictions are wrong.
US intelligence agencies cannot tell us what will happen next week in Syria. How can they pretend to predict 2030?

U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030 - Bloomberg

There are few times in history when this line could not be quoted:

“We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,” Council Chairman Christopher Kojm writes in the report.

Evolution, Creationism, Intelligent Design

The level of American education is stunning. Maybe we should get the UN in our homeschools.


Evolution, Creationism, Intelligent Design

Fiscal cliff standoff is a debate about the size of government

Finally some honesty. Fiscal cliff fight is not about deficit. It is not about economic growth. It is only about the size of government. Republicans just want a smaller government, except in business subsidies and defense spending.


Fiscal cliff standoff is a debate about the size of government | The A-List

Gen. Carter F. Ham Details Al Qaeda Influence in Mali

Gen. Carter F. Ham Details Al Qaeda Influence in Mali - NYTimes.com:

The law of unintended consequences:

"The fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya prompted Tuareg fighters from northern Mali, who had been fighting alongside Colonel Qaddafi’s forces, to return home with weapons from Libyan arsenals. They joined with Qaeda-affiliated Islamist militants who had moved to the lightly policed region from Algeria, and the two groups easily drove out the weakened Malian army in late March and early April. The Islamists then turned on the Tuaregs, routing them and consolidating control in the region in May and June."

Countries Where Robots Are Taking Over

Another way to look at these charts: China has a lot of room to improve its productivity.

Countries Where Robots Are Taking Over - Business Insider

Morgan Stanley Trader Faces Inquiry on Possible Manipulation

So MS bond trader loses 10 billion or so in the crisis and then they figure they need this kind of guy to replace him? With the Volker rule in place? Arrogance knows no bounds.

Morgan Stanley Trader Faces Inquiry on Possible Manipulation - NYTimes.com

Global Manufacturing: A McKinsey View

Very good charts which show how manufacturing component of the economy changes as it grows wealthier. Interesting cross country comparison.
The question is whether this trend continues. There is some talk now of the return of manufacturing to the US. Too soon to tell?

CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Global Manufacturing: A McKinsey View

Buffett Math

So John Cochrane, an economist, claims that Warren Buffet does not know the process that investors use to evaluate investments?
Epistemic closure.

The Grumpy Economist: Buffett Math

Applying Evidence to Social Programs

Often it is not about the facts, but about the politics of the implementation of programs.

Applying Evidence to Social Programs - NYTimes.com

Carnegie on the School Ethic

Carnegie on the School Ethic, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty:

Carnegie on education:

 Men have wasted their precious years, trying to extract education from an ignorant past whose chief province is to teach us, not what to adopt, but what to avoid.� Men have sent their sons to colleges to waste their energies upon obtaining a knowledge of such languages as Greek and Latin, which are of no more practical use to them than Choctaw... They have been crammed with the details of petty and insignificant skirmishes between savages, and taught to exalt a band of ruffians into heroes; and we have called them "educated."� They have been "educated" as if they were destined for life upon some other planet than this... What they have obtained has served to imbue them with false ideas and to give them a distaste for practical life... Had they gone into active work during the years spent at college they would have been better educated men in every true sense of that term.� The fire and energy have been stamped out of them, and how to so manage as to live a life of idleness and not a life of usefulness has become the chief question with them.

Corporate tax should be fair and shared

Corporate tax should be fair and shared - FT.com:

A better solution to international tax evasion:

Instead of attempting to estimate what fraction of a company’s total profit was earned in California and what amount in Wyoming, apportionment states taxed corporations on a share of their aggregate US profits corresponding to the share of their total US activity that took place in the state. The most common basis of apportionment is the “Massachusetts formula”, which gives equal weight to sales, payroll and assets.

Corporate tax should be fair and shared

Corporate tax should be fair and shared - FT.com:

A better solution to international tax evasion:

Instead of attempting to estimate what fraction of a company’s total profit was earned in California and what amount in Wyoming, apportionment states taxed corporations on a share of their aggregate US profits corresponding to the share of their total US activity that took place in the state. The most common basis of apportionment is the “Massachusetts formula”, which gives equal weight to sales, payroll and assets.

Taxes and Transfers Have Become Less Effective at Reducing Inequality | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

Inequality is not about taxes and transfers:


  • Regressive tax changes
  • Shift from labor to capital incomes
  • Deregulate financial markets
  • Privatize social insurance
  • Eroding labor standards (min wage, labor protections)
  • Diminished unionization; opposition to collective bargaining
  • Pro outsourcing
  • Monetary policy favoring low inflation over full employment
  • Diminished gov’t commitment to education
  • Eroding safety net
  • Anti-Keynesianism; pro austerity
  • Let-it-rip campaign finance
  • Smaller gov’t outlays as share of GDP

Taxes and Transfers Have Become Less Effective at Reducing Inequality | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

Schapiro, Head of S.E.C., Announces Departure

Schapiro, Head of S.E.C., Announces Departure - NYTimes.com:

Harvey Pitt has a great sense of irony:

“The S.E.C. came back from the brink,” said Harvey L. Pitt, a former chairman of the agency under President George W. Bush.

Tens of Thousands of Egyptians Protest Morsi’s Power Grab

Tens of Thousands of Egyptians Protest Morsi’s Power Grab � naked capitalism:

Important insight:

"I’ve seen this again and again with Japanese in particular, but in general with foreign nationals working for US companies in overseas offices. Americans who haven’t worked in a foreign country tend not to recognize how easily they are seduced by nationals who are Americanized, and gravitate towards them over more talented but less bicultural professionals."

Skills Don’t Pay the Bills

Good article. Wrong title. There is no skills gap. There is a wage gap.

Skills Don’t Pay the Bills - NYTimes.com

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Steven Cohen Implicated in Alleged Insider-Trading Scheme

They finally got him.  I have been waiting 10 years for this to come. Sorry to have missed the wave and all that money, but glad I got out of that business before I succumbed to the temptation.Healthcare sector offers too much chance of insider trading.

Steven Cohen Implicated in Alleged Insider-Trading Scheme - WSJ.com

The Economically Out-of-Date Nation-State

A must read for Republicans when they talk about job creators.
Obama should think about this as well before he sells out for more.

  "What CEO would last five minutes if he announced that the company will be taking a loss to help out the unemployed of Buffalo, New York by creating 1000 new jobs? What CFO could survive informing the board that he neglected to use international tax havens because, gosh, somebody has to help out America's deficit? What would be the business case behind "shared value" in service to America, when the daily grind will be spent in service to meeting earnings forecasts on the Street?

The Economically Out-of-Date Nation-State - Eric Garland - Harvard Business Review

Maryland, Rutgers: The Big Ten's Big Land Grab - WSJ.com

Football conferences are no longer about football. Why are donations to athletic programs still tax deductable?

Maryland, Rutgers: The Big Ten's Big Land Grab - WSJ.com:


And so the Big Ten, the benevolent conquistador, snapped up two schools with thin football pedigrees at a time when football is more important than ever. That is because conferences' TV properties and markets are in some ways more important than the on-field product. The evolution is reflected in how fans who once talked about national rankings and conference standings are now talking media-market rankings and conference-network footprints. As Delany said of Maryland: "They're in a great population area."

Private Equity and Hostess Stumbling Together

Even a defense of Ripplewood comes across as pretty lame. Sure they will lose some equity, but most of that is client money. Meanwhile they took out "millions in fees" and exorbitant salaries for board members. The breakeven analysis for Ripplewood management (not the fund itself which includes clients) would be interesting to see.  

Private Equity and Hostess Stumbling Together - NYTimes.com

Getting the Questions Right | iStockAnalyst.com

People think that inflation is higher than it really is because real income are stagnating.

Getting the Questions Right | iStockAnalyst.com

Martin Lomasney

Barney Frank reminds us:  "Never write if you can speak; never speak if you can nod; never nod if you can wink."


Martin Lomasney - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots - WSJ.com

From the comments "the title of the article should read 'Airlines face a shortage of Cheap Pilots'"
Most of the stories in the press about labor shortage only reflect the desire of companies to lower the pay of top employees.

Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots - WSJ.com

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Election maps

Alternatives to the redstate-blue state meme.

Election maps

Brad DeLong: William Dudley: Monetary Steps Were Too Timid

Brad DeLong: William Dudley: Monetary Steps Were Too Timid:


Monetary policy, while highly accommodative by historic standards, may still not have been sufficiently accommodative given the economic circumstances.... With the benefit of hindsight, monetary policy needed to be still more aggressive.

Four line summary of tonight's debate

Last Hope - By James Traub | Foreign Policy:



 "I killed Osama bin Laden."

"Thank you, Mr. President. Governor Romney, your turn: What's wrong with the Obama Doctrine?"

"Libya. Libya. Libya."

"Well, I guess that wraps it up for tonight. Vote early and vote often, folks."

Sunday, October 21, 2012

E. Donnall Thomas, Who Advanced Bone Marrow Transplants, Dies at 92

From The New York Times:

E. Donnall Thomas, Who Advanced Bone Marrow Transplants, Dies at 92

Dr. Thomas showed it was possible to transplant bone marrow to save the lives of patients dying from blood cancer, a discovery that earned him a Nobel Prize.

http://nyti.ms/VrM42r

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

The U.S. Navy: 1916 vs. 2012 -

 Nevertheless, the talking point has a certain power because the underlying facts are (somewhat) true, and a full appraisal of the claim requires space, time, and an over-developed appreciation of the silly.

The U.S. Navy: 1916 vs. 2012 - Flashpoints:

Rajiv Sethi: Of Bulls and Bair

Rajiv Sethi: Of Bulls and Bair:

Regulatory Arbitrage vs regulatory capture:

Bair argues that while a single monolithic regulator would put an end to regulatory arbitrage, it could worsen the problem of regulatory capture: "a diversity of views and the ability of one agency to look over the shoulder of another is a good check against regulators becoming too close to the entities they regulate."