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By the Numbers: Comparing Spending by Gun Rights and Gun Control Interest Groups

It is pretty clear by looking at these numbers that it is hard to predict current law will change by much.
There is very little support for gun control. People like the idea in abstract but are not willing to commit to change. On the other hand, gun rights advocates can be motivated.

By the Numbers: Comparing Spending by Gun Rights and Gun Control Interest Groups - ProPublica

Let’s Give Up on the Constitution


Why follow the rules of "a group of white propertied men who have been dead for two centuries, knew nothing of our present situation, acted illegally under existing law and thought it was fine to own slaves "?



Let’s Give Up on the Constitution - NYTimes.com:

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Like Math? Thank Your Motivation, Not IQ

Like Math? Thank Your Motivation, Not IQ: Scientific American:

 Looks like Tiger Mom had it half-right: Motivation to work hard and good study techniques, not IQ, lead to better math skills, a new study shows.�

Mapping China's Red Nobility

Fascinating graphic of the lines of the eight immortals.
I would like to see something like this for the United States. Who would the top ten families be here and how would they have changed over time?


Mapping China's Red Nobility - Bloomberg

World's Longest High-Speed Rail Line Opens in China - NYTimes.com

World's Longest High-Speed Rail Line Opens in China - NYTimes.com:

Bullet trains traveling 300 kilometers an hour, or 186 miles an hour, began regular service between Beijing and Guangzhou, the main metropolis in southeastern China. Older trains still in service on a parallel rail line take 21 hours; Amtrak trains from New York to Miami, a shorter distance, still take nearly 30 hours.

New York Post, Daily News Blast NRA Speech

New York Post, Daily News Blast NRA Speech (PHOTOS) | TPM LiveWire

Meanwhile the gutless NYTimes:
 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/nra-calls-for-armed-guards-at-schools.html?hp&_r=0

The ownership question

Four most important questions in macro economic policy.


- Can we introduce a living wage without pricing some workers out of jobs?
- Can we tax companies more heavily without them moving their profits overseas, or cutting investment or shifting the burden onto workers or customers?
- Are there some macroeconomic policies - fiscal policies, wage-led growth, NGDP targeting (pdf) or whatever - that can create near-full employment?
- Is it possible to regulate banks sufficiently to avoid another financial crisis, whilst ensuring that they lend sufficiently to productive businesses?


Stumbling and Mumbling: The ownership question

Four State Department Officials Are Out After Benghazi Report

Four State Department Officials Are Out After Benghazi Report - NYTimes.com:

The following quote should be the lesson. Not firing some mid level bureaucrats.

“It is not reasonable nor feasible to tether U.S. forces at the ready to respond to protect every high-risk post in the world,” Mike Mullen, the retired admiral and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who served as vice chairman of the independent review, said Wednesday.

In Unusual Move, Cerberus to Sell Freedom Group, a Gun Company

In Unusual Move, Cerberus to Sell Freedom Group, a Gun Company - NYTimes.com:


Cerberus, a private equity and hedge fund firm that manages more than $20 billion, is owned by the billionaire financier Stephen A. Feinberg. His father, Martin Feinberg, lives in Newtown, Conn.,

In Reaction to Newtown, Connecticut, School Shooting Lawmakers Weigh In on Gun Control - WSJ.com

In Reaction to Newtown, Connecticut, School Shooting Lawmakers Weigh In on Gun Control - WSJ.com:

Some republicans are idiots.

 "I wish to God that she had had an M-4 in her office locked up" so that she could take "his head off before he can kill those precious kids," he said.

School Yoga Class Draws Religious Protest From Christians

School Yoga Class Draws Religious Protest From Christians - NYTimes.com:

America goes crazy, bit by bit:

 “They’re not just teaching physical poses, they’re teaching children how to think and how to make decisions,” Ms. Eady said. “They’re teaching children how to meditate and how to look within for peace and for comfort. They’re using this as a tool for many things beyond just stretching.”

Inequality: power vs human capital

Very important quote:
"Inequality, then, is better explained by power than by human capital or marginal productivity. "


Stumbling and Mumbling: Inequality: power vs human capital

Cassandra Does Tokyo: The Cats In The Hat Won't Be Coming Back

Cassandra Does Tokyo: The Cats In The Hat Won't Be Coming Back:

Lessons from the Olympus events (and many other similar crises):


 (1) Never, ever, EVER try and trade yourself out of a loss; (2) Operating companies should not speculate outside their area of expertise for speculating is hard-enough for dedicated speculators; (3) Coming clean early with mistakes almost always trumps getting caught later with dishonesty. (4) If following the herd down a perditious route, one must take care not to be the last one left; (5) Listen to all approaches by investment bankers with the utmost of cynicism; (6) There are few free lunches. (7) If your excuse is too implausible or convoluted to convince your old schoolteacher, it is half-baked and you will be caught in your deception. Japanese organizational inertia carries unstoppable forces that can be harnessed for much good, but, when it goes awry, is capable unthinkable stupidity.

Tiger Asia Admits Guilt in $60 Million Court Settlement -

Another example of insider information in the world of equity long short. Why is there no jail time?

Tiger Asia Admits Guilt in $60 Million Court Settlement - Bloomberg

Some Question Merit Aid at University of Oklahoma

Why can't we have a better press corp?
Merit aid should be praised, not open to "questions". Does the NYT question recruiting athelets?

Some Question Merit Aid at University of Oklahoma - NYTimes.com

The Conventional Wisdom Re Growth is Unwise

The Conventional Wisdom Re Growth is Unwise | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy:

" Treasury yields at 1.6% on one hand…Kennedy Airport on the other…doesn’t make sense."

Amtrak from Boston to DC less sense.

U.S. Students Still Lag Globally in Math and Science, Tests Show

U.S. Students Still Lag Globally in Math and Science, Tests Show - NYTimes.com:

Duh lede of the day. If you teach a child how to learn, then they will learn.

 “What’s remarkable is that in all the countries, this concept of an early start is there over and over again,” said Michael O. Martin, the other executive director of the center. “You can get the early childhood experience in a variety of ways, but it’s important you get it.”

CRAZY did not cause the financial crisis

Mispriced risk caused the financial crisis.



Mark O'Friel
C: 914-907-7144
O: 617-903-0251
F : 419-710-3449


U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030

I predict that half of these predictions are wrong.
US intelligence agencies cannot tell us what will happen next week in Syria. How can they pretend to predict 2030?

U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030 - Bloomberg

There are few times in history when this line could not be quoted:

“We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,” Council Chairman Christopher Kojm writes in the report.

Evolution, Creationism, Intelligent Design

The level of American education is stunning. Maybe we should get the UN in our homeschools.


Evolution, Creationism, Intelligent Design

Fiscal cliff standoff is a debate about the size of government

Finally some honesty. Fiscal cliff fight is not about deficit. It is not about economic growth. It is only about the size of government. Republicans just want a smaller government, except in business subsidies and defense spending.


Fiscal cliff standoff is a debate about the size of government | The A-List

Gen. Carter F. Ham Details Al Qaeda Influence in Mali

Gen. Carter F. Ham Details Al Qaeda Influence in Mali - NYTimes.com:

The law of unintended consequences:

"The fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya prompted Tuareg fighters from northern Mali, who had been fighting alongside Colonel Qaddafi’s forces, to return home with weapons from Libyan arsenals. They joined with Qaeda-affiliated Islamist militants who had moved to the lightly policed region from Algeria, and the two groups easily drove out the weakened Malian army in late March and early April. The Islamists then turned on the Tuaregs, routing them and consolidating control in the region in May and June."

Countries Where Robots Are Taking Over

Another way to look at these charts: China has a lot of room to improve its productivity.

Countries Where Robots Are Taking Over - Business Insider

Morgan Stanley Trader Faces Inquiry on Possible Manipulation

So MS bond trader loses 10 billion or so in the crisis and then they figure they need this kind of guy to replace him? With the Volker rule in place? Arrogance knows no bounds.

Morgan Stanley Trader Faces Inquiry on Possible Manipulation - NYTimes.com

Global Manufacturing: A McKinsey View

Very good charts which show how manufacturing component of the economy changes as it grows wealthier. Interesting cross country comparison.
The question is whether this trend continues. There is some talk now of the return of manufacturing to the US. Too soon to tell?

CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Global Manufacturing: A McKinsey View

Buffett Math

So John Cochrane, an economist, claims that Warren Buffet does not know the process that investors use to evaluate investments?
Epistemic closure.

The Grumpy Economist: Buffett Math