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Thursday, January 28, 2010
Strength Training Aids Mental Acuity in Women, Study Finds - NYTimes.com
What is the role of the FED
Its mandate says three: maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long term interest rates.
It ignores number one.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Financial Armageddon: Mother of All Linkfests on the Outlook for the Period Ahead
One of these guys will be partially right.
The sanctity of military spending
The easiest to cut and the most wasteful spending is the only area not cut?
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Quelle Surprise! Proposed Restrictions on Proprietary Trading are a Joke � naked capitalism
Not true. As stated in one of the quotes, limit prop trading by limiting VAR.
Or look at internal reporting systems or even resumes of traders. The banks know what prop trading is.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Fodder for a Coen movie
Cui bono?
The ex-wife?
The ex-girlfriend?
Chuck?
Must be a third woman.
The ex-wife?
The ex-girlfriend?
Chuck?
Must be a third woman.
http://spatiallyrelevant.org/2010/01/22/hell-hath-no-fury-like-a-woman-scorned-–-the-chuck-phillips-yavaughnie-wilkins-story/
On the Psychology of the two Parties
Republicans know how to think positively. This turns 41-59 to a majority.
Interview with Richard Thaler: Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker
A continuation of the Cassidy interviews with Chicago School economists.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Watching CNBC is like Doctors watching General Hospital
The reason for the recent selloff is that the market has rallied over 60% since last March's lows and is overvalued. Obama's bank proposal is not the ultimate cause.
Bank earnings will arguably be more stable without prop trading. GS has traded at a lower multiple than JPM or Citi because of its high weight of prop trading in its earnings.
Stupidest thing I have read today
Bosses are always smarter?
This guy has never worked for anyone.
Why America and China will clash
Expect to see more and more of these types of columns. Also telling are the comments. Too many people look at growth as a zero sum game. Media and writers thrive on conflicts.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Should have stuck with Hillary. ..
This is why we have the internets.
- Hitler Finds Out Scott Brown Won Massachusetts Senate Seat
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Who better to sum up the predicament of the Democrats:
The possibility that the loss of Ted Kennedy's seat will cost the vote on healthcare and possibly the presidency of Obama. Ted Kennedy, the iconic liberal and champion of healthcare.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Saturday, January 16, 2010
That consumption binge? It’s mostly health care
Dated but very interesting. Solving the healthcare problem would help solve national savings problem. Turns out the growth of healthcare spending is about 60% of the growth of consumption spending.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Beat the Press Archive | The American Prospect
The banks will not be able to pass on the bank tax to consumers if the market is competitive .
Moral Bankruptcy | Mother Jones
And not just Wall Street, all of crony capitalism.
Tim Duy's Fed Watch: It's Not About Interest Rates Yet
Consumer spending is rising again, but it is well below trend lines of 2007.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Interview with John Cochrane: Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker
Good summary of the recent arguments about efficient market theory. Comes with the bias that the theory had been discredited.
Go Quietly, Old People,
One of the best explanations of the difference in health care costs among countries is end of life care. The issue is what to do about it? Who will determine what is the correct amount of care.
Nationalism: China's new orthodoxy
Nationalism, not socialism, provides a better explanation for much of China's actions.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Why is Haiti so poor?
Economists are good at asking but not answering these kinds of questions.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
The Military-Industrial Compex is Ruining the Economy � naked capitalism
This is the most important post of the year. Nobody is listening. Part of the reason I supported Obama was to have someone who might be willing to take on this complex. Unfortunately he is realizing the path to maintain power is to ally with Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex.
Lessons of 1937
Keep rates low for a long time. Do not worry about inflation yet.
“Fire Geithner Now!”
This is a growing trend as Wall Street crony capitalism grates. There are too many biased advisors to the government.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
My life is simple
Compared to Pete Orszag:
"it’s complicated when a divorced father of two with a very important job gets very publicly engaged to a 31-year-old financial correspondent for ABC News, Bianna Golodryga, just weeks after his ex-girlfriend gave birth to his daughter."
Hell freezes over
WSJ has a rational article about terror threat.
Maybe they read Glen Greenwald on the same day.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Five Ways to Become Happier Today | Tal Ben-Shahar | Big Think
I am happy: five for five.
- Accept things
- Time affluence
- Regular excercise
- Gratitude
- Simple life
Happiness
What is on your list for making yourself happier today?
You can be happier by reading this post | Penelope Trunk's Brazen Careerist
You can be happier by reading this post | Penelope Trunk's Brazen Careerist
Records being set
Not the kind of records you want to see.
Don’t Forget Financial Sector Reform
Seems to be slipping onto the backburner. The confidence of the banks and renewed lobbying efforts and the fact that 2010 is an election year will make much of this difficult. Whether Dodd will try to leave a legacy or not might determine the course of reform.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Great news
Now I will have something to do during those long drives.
Robert Rubin On How To Make Capitalism Work Again - Newsweek.com
Rubin's recommendations for financial reform:
- There should be greatly increased capital and margin requirements for derivatives and other instruments of financial engineering to create a greater cushion when trouble develops and to reduce risk exposure. I developed this view during my many years of working with derivatives before entering government, as described in my 2003 book, In an Uncertain World.
- Standard derivative contracts should trade on an exchange to increase transparency. Transactions that are custom designed would not be exchange traded but would be subject to the same capital and margin requirements as listed transactions. Disclosure requirements could be considered for customized transactions, to provide private counterparties and regulators with the transparency to understand the risks.
- There should be two sets of more stringent leverage limitations for systemically significant institutions, one defined by risk-based models and the second by much simpler measures, since mathematical models can't capture the full range of real-world possibilities.
- There should be significant constraints on off-balance-sheet financing; for example, institutions must retain ownership of a portion of off-balance-sheet assets.
- We need a change in accounting systems to avoid the artificial effects of mark-to-market accounting for illiquid assets on balance sheets and on markets. There are other accounting approaches that would better reflect long-run values for these assets.
- We should also provide effective mechanisms for dealing with systemically important nonbank financial institutions—including bank holding companies—that get into trouble, to mitigate "too big to fail" concerns, but practical ways to do this need to be developed.
- There should be greatly increased protections, both to safeguard consumers and to reduce systemic risk. The elements should include readily understandable disclosure, suitability requirements, prohibition of practices or instruments inherently susceptible to abuse, and, if some practical way can be found, personalized advice for the most vulnerable consumers.
Financial Armageddon: Neither Surprising Nor Containable
CRE: how much of this is in the market?
There is much focus on the upcoming CRE problems. 500 billion in loans coming due this year and next.
The fundamentals will continue to deteriorate.
Residential Real Estate Bubble in China
There are signs of a bubble in residential real estate in Shanghai. What will the catalyst be for the unwind and how to trade it are not clear to me.
Ten percent annual GDP growth can hide the bubble for a long time. Or China could grow into the real estate. Most of the current stock of residential is still inferior.
“According to research results released yesterday by DTZ, the average sale price in the city’s most luxurious residential properties has soared above 50,000 yuan (US$7,324) per square meter in Shanghai this year from about 7,000 yuan per square meter seven years ago.
Sales by value of high-end properties within the city’s Inner Ring Road more than doubled in the first nine months of this year, with the average price surging to 37,000 yuan per square meter from 24,000 yuan at the beginning of this year.”
While the population of China is large, it is finite. And as A. Gary Schilling pointed out at the beginning of 2009, the number of Chinese with any disposable income is shockingly small. At some point the pool of greater fools will run out, or some will need to cash out to meet expenses. Then, the rush for te exits will start. The problem, as always, is when this happens.
Ten percent annual GDP growth can hide the bubble for a long time. Or China could grow into the real estate. Most of the current stock of residential is still inferior.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Manufacturing Jobs Down 20% from Peak
Only 20 million Americans work in manufacturing. Technology and outsourcing both contribute to the decline.
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
What’s Our Line? - NYTimes.com
Kinsley is asking the wrong question here. Too many Americans are. We all should be asking why " an innocent child killed accidentally in our pursuit of terrorists gets no justice at all."
The Problem with Wall Street
Recent books about Wall Street do more to reveal its flaws.
Monday, January 04, 2010
Saturday, January 02, 2010
Advice for your children: 2010-2020
- Calculus
- Learn languages
- Buy and hold
- No debt
- Focus on execution
From the comments
- Luck will play a large role.
- The barriers we place on our minds are our biggest
Moneyball quote:
The time that you will share with people you enjoy on this earth will be brief. Ask yourself how you want to allocate that time.
Marginal Revolution: Advice for your children: 2010-2020
- Learn languages
- Buy and hold
- No debt
- Focus on execution
From the comments
- Luck will play a large role.
- The barriers we place on our minds are our biggest
Moneyball quote:
The time that you will share with people you enjoy on this earth will be brief. Ask yourself how you want to allocate that time.
Marginal Revolution: Advice for your children: 2010-2020
How to Train the Aging Brain - NYTimes.com
Hits a little too close to home.
Adult Learning - Neuroscience - How to Train the Aging Brain - NYTimes.com
Adult Learning - Neuroscience - How to Train the Aging Brain - NYTimes.com
The economic theories of the MLA
"If you want lifetime employment, become a judge or a priest."
Academia is not as cushy as I thought. Only 27 percent of college instructors are tenure or tenure track.
Marginal Revolution: The economic theories of the MLA
Academia is not as cushy as I thought. Only 27 percent of college instructors are tenure or tenure track.
Marginal Revolution: The economic theories of the MLA
Friday, January 01, 2010
Comparing the Health Plans - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com
Great graphic to compare the Senate and House plans.
Mainstream media gets the web sometimes.
Comparing the Health Plans - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com
Mainstream media gets the web sometimes.
Comparing the Health Plans - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com
Remember
Things could have turned out a whole lot worse.
Happy New Year.
The Naughts: The Second Least-Scary Decade of the Last 100 Years, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
Happy New Year.
The Naughts: The Second Least-Scary Decade of the Last 100 Years, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty