Sunday, May 31, 2009
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Saturday, May 23, 2009
FRB: Speech--Bernanke, Commencement address--May 22, 2009
Key thought:
I do not even remember that he spoke at Harvard last year. All I remembered was J.K. Rowling and the gay wizard. Central bankers did not matter in the late spring of 2008.
Key paragraph
So, my advice to you is to stay optimistic. Things usually have a way of working out. My second piece of advice is to be flexible, even adventurous as you begin your careers. As I have tried to illustrate today, you are much less able than you think to foresee how your life, both professional and personal, will play out. The world changes too fast, and too many accidents and unpredictable events occur. It will pay, therefore, to be creative and open-minded as you search for and consider professional opportunities. Look most carefully at those options that will give you a chance to learn new things, explore new areas, and grow as a person. Think of every job as a potential investment in yourself. Will it prepare your mind for the opportunities that chance will provide?
FRB: Speech--Bernanke, Commencement address--May 22, 2009
I do not even remember that he spoke at Harvard last year. All I remembered was J.K. Rowling and the gay wizard. Central bankers did not matter in the late spring of 2008.
Key paragraph
So, my advice to you is to stay optimistic. Things usually have a way of working out. My second piece of advice is to be flexible, even adventurous as you begin your careers. As I have tried to illustrate today, you are much less able than you think to foresee how your life, both professional and personal, will play out. The world changes too fast, and too many accidents and unpredictable events occur. It will pay, therefore, to be creative and open-minded as you search for and consider professional opportunities. Look most carefully at those options that will give you a chance to learn new things, explore new areas, and grow as a person. Think of every job as a potential investment in yourself. Will it prepare your mind for the opportunities that chance will provide?
FRB: Speech--Bernanke, Commencement address--May 22, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Economist's View: FRBSF Economic Outlook
San Francisco Fed says that this recovery will be slower than others.
Economist's View: FRBSF Economic Outlook
Economist's View: FRBSF Economic Outlook
Monday, May 18, 2009
The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness"
Some readers have complained that there are too many finance posts. A good gender society post with an economic twist.
A good summary:
And the original paper
Economist's View: "The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness"
And Mankiw's interpretation:
Women's rights movement was a mistake.
A good summary:
And the original paper
Economist's View: "The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness"
And Mankiw's interpretation:
Women's rights movement was a mistake.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Job Loss
Great graphical display of information: job loss.
An interactive map of vanishing employment across the country. - By Chris Wilson - Slate Magazine
And Bridgewater says that unemployment is now a leading indicator:
Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incremental spending transactions are financed via debt, stimulated by interest rate cuts. But as long as credit remains frozen, spending will require income, and income comes from jobs. And debt service payments are made out of income. Therefore, in a deleveraging environment job growth becomes an important leading, causal indicator of demand and other economic conditions.
“… The bounce in the economy and the stabilization in markets reflect government actions that are big enough to impact near-term growth rates, but are not sufficiently directed at the root problem of excessive indebtedness to produce permanent healing. The deterioration in employment markets will continue because companies’ profit margins are so deeply damaged that a little bounce in growth won’t do much to alter their need to cut costs. This deterioration in labor markets will undermine demand and continue to pressure loan losses, which will keep the pressure on the banks and elevate the cost of capital for tentative borrowers, inhibiting credit expansion.”
An interactive map of vanishing employment across the country. - By Chris Wilson - Slate Magazine
And Bridgewater says that unemployment is now a leading indicator:
Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incremental spending transactions are financed via debt, stimulated by interest rate cuts. But as long as credit remains frozen, spending will require income, and income comes from jobs. And debt service payments are made out of income. Therefore, in a deleveraging environment job growth becomes an important leading, causal indicator of demand and other economic conditions.
“… The bounce in the economy and the stabilization in markets reflect government actions that are big enough to impact near-term growth rates, but are not sufficiently directed at the root problem of excessive indebtedness to produce permanent healing. The deterioration in employment markets will continue because companies’ profit margins are so deeply damaged that a little bounce in growth won’t do much to alter their need to cut costs. This deterioration in labor markets will undermine demand and continue to pressure loan losses, which will keep the pressure on the banks and elevate the cost of capital for tentative borrowers, inhibiting credit expansion.”
Story Time for the Economy
Is it the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end of the downturn.
Khaleej Times Online - Story Time for the Economy
Khaleej Times Online - Story Time for the Economy
Rapt
Rapt
This is a book about secular meditation. Focus on things that foster contentment and not the things that cause worry. As William James said wisdom and a satisfied life is about knowing what to overlook. Our only weapon against stress is to choose one thought over another. Experience depends on what you pay attention to. Remember Rashomon.
The difficulty arises about how to manage one's attention. "It is impossible to communicate with, much less bond with someone you cannot, or will not, focus your attention on."Slow down, focus on relationships, focus on people. Relationships take work.
Try to focus on the small pleasures of everyday life.
Amishi Jha
Posner and Rothbart
Omega Institute for Holistic Studies
This is a book about secular meditation. Focus on things that foster contentment and not the things that cause worry. As William James said wisdom and a satisfied life is about knowing what to overlook. Our only weapon against stress is to choose one thought over another. Experience depends on what you pay attention to. Remember Rashomon.
The difficulty arises about how to manage one's attention. "It is impossible to communicate with, much less bond with someone you cannot, or will not, focus your attention on."Slow down, focus on relationships, focus on people. Relationships take work.
Try to focus on the small pleasures of everyday life.
Amishi Jha
Posner and Rothbart
Omega Institute for Holistic Studies
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Why The Financial System Collapsed
Why it always does: not enough capital in reserve against risky loans.
National Journal Magazine - Why The Financial System Collapsed
National Journal Magazine - Why The Financial System Collapsed
Friday, May 01, 2009
New Home Inventory is droppng
Three reasons:
- Less construction
- Sales of existing inventory
- And this
Calculated Risk: New Homes Demolished in Victorville, CA
- Less construction
- Sales of existing inventory
- And this
Calculated Risk: New Homes Demolished in Victorville, CA